If the latest poll in the media is even only partially true, UKIP are set to deliver a blow to the Tories in the Clacton by-election. However, nothing can be taken for granted. The stakes are very high. Any breakthrough in a Westminster Parliamentary seat would be groundbreaking. But this would be even more so in a seat where our opponent’s majority is over 10,000 votes, and in the case of Clacton the Conservatives have a majority of 12,068, and took 53% of the overall vote. That would traditionally be regarded by Psephologists as a ‘safe’ seat.

But by building UKIP up to being poised to “a massive swing of 48% …the biggest in post-war history” the media provides an extra challenge in managing expectations.  In these predictions, before the writ has been moved to call the by election (which may be as much as 3 months away) the media have set the bar unbelievably high. The only thing that matters is a win, and that could still be a huge hurdle. Just as this would be a huge boost to the morale to UKIP, the loss of a ‘safe’ seat to the Tories would be a complete disaster – one they will try to avoid at all costs.

They will throw in all they have – every Government Minister, Member of Parliament, and every available activist from across the country. They will claim a vote for UKIP is a vote for Miliband – utter rubbish in Clacton and virtually every constituency in the country, where UKIP is almost certainly going to be the main challenger whether the incumbent is Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem. They will claim that only the Tories will deliver a referendum on EU membership. This is also another lie, with the sole cynical aim of avoiding losing elections.

The Conservative Party has, and always will have too many people who are inherently pro-EU. It is not just the likes of Clarke and Heseltine, but it includes everyone from leading lights such as John Major and David Cameron himself, right down through the ranks of lesser-known beings throughout the Tory Party’s elected members – including our local MP Bob Walter – and throughout the officials and membership of the voluntary party too. The Tory Party will never change, because it is so infested with pro-EU members that it can never change. It is not just the Tories. Labour and the Lib Dems are just as committed to EU Membership, but all three parties have at times over the past twenty years made promises and even Manifesto commitments on referendum, but all have ultimately squirmed their way out every time because they know they would lose.

Only UKIP intends to get us out of the EU. It is essential that every UKIP member that is willing and able to comes to Clacton. But on this occasion, leave your bucket and spade behind – it will be pounding the streets – knocking on doors and delivering leaflets!

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